William Buick
PSCI 3032
In Response to - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-21008571
The
most recent economic liberalization of Cuba has come in the form of labor. More
specifically, Raul Castro has enabled workers to search for more competitive
job markets abroad. The country has the ability to succeed with an increased
diversification of income through remittances. However, the new legislature
does not include “vital workers”, a visa, in addition to a passport is still
necessary to travel, and immigration tensions with the United States remain in
place.
When
liberalizing the movement of people there is always a larger economic gamble.
The negative side effects include the fleeing of human capital and an overall
decrease in labor. Cuba is hoping that an increase in remittances, money sent
from working relatives abroad to Cuban citizens, will offset any economic
downturn. Cuba already has a considerable diaspora outside the island’s
borders. It is the hope that present and future workers abroad will send
remittances back to their families in order to stimulate growth from the bottom
up. As previously mentioned, this diversification of income, especially in
foreign currency, has the ability to fund additional schooling, travel, and
investment for citizens residing in Cuba. In my opinion, the gamble will work;
the remittent flows eventually will offset the flight of human capital and then
add to the economy. However, Cuba will have to mitigate certain restrictions on
the acquisition of a passport to truly open its borders.
Not
everyone in Cuba has the ability to become an economic migrant, “athletes and
vital professionals as well as communist party leaders” will not be permitted a
passport. To retain economic growth this statute does not seem necessary and
simply prolongs the issue of immigration for the island. The dangerous practice
of taking a boat to the coast of Florida will continue as long as select
individuals cannot travel internationally. The United States exacerbates the
issue by granting citizenship to any Cuban denizen that makes it to Florida. Some
argue that this provides proper incentive to risk ones life to reach the
Florida Keys only ninety miles away. Current United States immigration law
permits family reunification. If immigration law within the U.S. liberalizes,
i.e. the passing of the DREAM act and begins granting amnesty citizenship, it
will be interesting to observe the movement of people between Cuba and the U.S.
In the end, one must ask if Cuba has done enough, or rather, the slow change in
migratory reform will result in a more stable transition to the free movement
of people and eventual opening to international markets.
You make an interesting point when discussing the gamble in liberalizing migration. In this gamble, the loss of human capital seems to be the more likely outcome. While the migrant workers are sending back remittances to family in their countries, in a liberalized environment that money would only serve to migrate the remaining members. In order to avoid this, while still allowing for more liberal migration, it is important for countries, such as Cuba, to create jobs with incentives enough to not leave.
ReplyDeleteAlthough there may still be unjust immigration and trade laws restricting Cuban citizens prosperity, I believe that the abolishment of exit permits is Cuba taking a step in the right direction!
ReplyDeleteWill brings up a series of valid points when discussing the changes in labor and remittances likely provoked by this shift in policy. One additional point to consider is that, from the perspective of the Cuban government, a decrease in the labor stock may also bring about positive economic and political consequences. Specifically, in confronting government deficits and uncertainty about foreign donors (read Hugo Chavez) Cuba has pledged to cut a significant number of public sector employees. To avoid systemic unemployment for those that lose their public sector jobs the government has relaxed policies relating to small business and small-scale agriculture. However, it is doubtful that these reforms would absorb all of the newly 'freed' labor and more doubtful that it would be absorbed quickly. Thus, migration can act as a safety valve, allowing extra labor to find employment outside of Cuba and reducing political pressures on the government.
ReplyDeleteThat is a very interesting point and I actually believe that these reforms to cut public sector employees as well as relax policies on small businesses and small-scale agriculture will be very successful in two ways. First, it goes back to Blake's point about the need for Cuba to create incentives for people to stay. As much as it's creating incentives for people not to stay, I also think that jobs in small business and small-scale agriculture with more relaxed policies will be something Cubans want or will be interested in, thus jobs in these two areas will indeed be absorbed; maybe not very quickly or completely but they will be partially absorbed. Second, the people who do not take jobs in small business or small-scale agriculture will be provided the perfect incentive to find work abroad because in my opinion, when one is employed and has reason to stay where they are at, it becomes very difficult to up and leave the country in search for something else but now that one is unemployed and traveling from Cuba is becoming easier, there is much more security in do so. Another thing that I find interesting and am curious what people think is if Cuban citizens will begin leaving Cuba more for economic reasons or personal reasons (i.e. seeing friends/family or traveling). I am interested in this because for many years, leaving Cuba was nearly impossible and now that it has become more of an option, how will people use this ability?
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